House Majority Leader Ken Martinez is seeking support for a bid to unseat Speaker Ben Lujan.
Before I go any further, kudos to Joe Monahan for reporting this before me. We’ve both been talking with people about it for days, but he found sources before I did who were willing to be quoted, albeit anonymously.
When House Democrats meet Dec. 18, Martinez will need 22 of 42 votes to unseat Lujan. Even then, there won’t be certainty. Technically, the entire House votes to elect a speaker on the first day of the session. In addition to potential Republican votes, Lujan could convince some Martinez supporters to switch sides before then.
However, historically, Democrats emerge from their December meeting in consensus, and vote as a group at the start of the session.
Martinez’s decision apparently came after a closed-door meeting with Lujan early last week. Martinez expressed concern about a possible appearance of corruption in the House Democratic leadership, and in particular a report in the Albuquerque Journal that a top aide to Lujan has been living rent-free in a home owned by the Region III Housing Authority.
Few know what else was said at the meeting, but afterward, Martinez began making phone calls seeking support, sources tell me.
Will Martinez have the votes? I spent a lot of time Monday talking with two politicos about this. One doesn’t think Martinez will; the other thinks it’s a 50-50 split. At least two House Democrats who Martinez’s supporters were hoping to win over have said they won’t likely go that way.
This may, in part, be about ethical concerns, but it’s also about power. Martinez’s father is a former House speaker, and Martinez has long been ordained as Lujan’s eventual replacement.
Other lawmakers sense opportunity. At least one is seeking a promise of a committee chairmanship in exchange for support. Others are seeking committee appointments.
Martinez, I’m told, has made at least one such promise. Lujan is telling House members that he isn’t yet making commitments to anyone. You can be certain he’ll use them if he believes needs them.
In the meantime, he’s using fear of uncertainty to try to keep the troops in line.
The fact that he hasn’t yet handed out promises suggests that Lujan is fairly confident he has the votes he needs. However, the fact that Martinez is challenging Lujan suggests he’s also confident. A failed attempt to oust Lujan could be political suicide.
Then again, if he finds he doesn’t have the votes, Martinez might quietly get back in line and never formally challenge Lujan.
That means there may or may not be an opening for majority leader. If there is, Rep. Joseph Cervantes of Las Cruces appears to be the favorite, sources tell me.
Martinez and Cervantes are both lawyers, and some are saying they won’t support Martinez because they don’t want lawyers running the show. For the most part, that’s an excuse, and this is still about loyalty to Lujan.
And fear of Lujan. Some worry that, if they support Martinez and he fails, committee positions and capital outlay money won’t come their way.
Martinez is building a coalition that includes support from the north and south, but Lujan has support from every corner of the state. It’s too early to predict how this will end.