Heinrich and Wilson up big, Chávez slipping, polls find
Martin Heinrich and Heather Wilson both have big leads; meanwhile, Marty Chávez is 13 points behind his two opponents, who are tied, in the new Albuquerque Journal poll. Another poll confirms a tight race for a Clovis-area state Senate seat.
Polls conducted for the Albuquerque Journal confirm that U.S. Senate candidates Martin Heinrich and Heather Wilson have big leads in their respective primaries and, in the Democratic 1st Congressional District primary, Marty Chávez is falling behind.
First to the CD1 poll. From the Journal’s article:
“Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said the survey taken May 21-24 indicates that the race for the June 5 primary election nomination has become a two-way battle between (Eric) Griego, a state senator and former city councilor, and (Michelle) Lujan Grisham, a Bernalillo County commissioner and former state health secretary.
“…Lujan Grisham and Griego were deadlocked in the May 21-24 survey, each backed by 33 percent of the Democratic voters polled in the 1st Congressional District. Chávez trailed the front-runners with about 20 percent of the vote. About 14 percent of the Democrats were undecided.
“Results for the districtwide sample of Democratic voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.”
On to the U.S. Senate races. From the Journal article on those surveys:
“Heinrich, a U.S. House member and former Albuquerque city councilor, led (Hector) Balderas, the incumbent state auditor from the tiny town of Wagon Mound, 51 percent to 26 percent, with 23 percent undecided, according to a Journal Poll conducted May 21-24.
“Wilson, who held the 1st Congressional District seat for five terms before Heinrich, had two-thirds of the Republican voter support in the Journal Poll for the GOP nomination to the Senate seat. She was leading (Greg) Sowards, a Las Cruces businessman, 66 percent to 20 percent, with 14 percent undecided.”
The Journal reported that its poll surveyed 741 proven Democratic primary voters and 504 proven Republican primary voters “who said they voted early for the current primary election or planned to vote on or before June 5.” The Democratic poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, while the GOP poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
There’s been a debate about polls of the Democratic 1st District race in the last week, but surveys conducted by Brian Sanderoff’s Research & Polling Inc. for the Journal are generally considered the best in the state.
State Senate race is also hot
Another poll released by a newspaper today confirms a close race for the Senate District 7 seat. There’s no Democrat in the race, so unless a minor-party or independent candidate files next month, the winner of the GOP primary takes the seat.
“Although the final tally of the poll shows state Senate District 7 Republican candidate Angie Spears with a slight lead over Pat Woods — 38 percent to 31 percent — it has a 6.86 percent margin of error.
“Additionally, about a third of the voters polled during the past 10 days said they still haven’t decided how they will vote June 5.”
This has been a pretty nasty race, and, according to the newspaper, many undecided voters “said they were bothered by the negative tone of the campaign.”
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