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Catching up on new Rasmussen poll of NM

By | 2/23/12, 8:54 am | News

Like other reporters, I neglected to report on a new poll of New Mexico last week as I covered the end of the legislative session. So here’s the skinny on the newest poll:


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The automated survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Feb. 14 and has margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

You can read more about the poll here, but you need a Rasmussen subscription to get to many of the details.

IcarusPhoenix19:53 February 23, 2012

Dr. J:
 
You patronizing tone and presumptuous attitude aside, the reality is that Heather Wilson is the best campaigner the New Mexico GOP has put forward in the past twenty years, and very likely neither man has a chance of beating her; while Congressman (yes, he has a title, which you might want to – for once – consider showing the respect to use) Heinrich – who, as previously stated, no one refers to as “Marty” – has a slightly better chance of overcoming the former Congresswoman’s electoral talents, the reality remains that it is unlikely that either can overcome.  Frankly, considering the sparsity of good candidates (who actually stand a chance, anyway) for the first district – in either party – and how well Auditor Balderas is doing as his current job – particularly in comparison to his predecessors or his AG counter-part – I’d far prefer it if both men remained where they currently are.

EW-aif18:59 February 23, 2012

Well, DJ, maybe the Republican presidential nominee will at least pick someone better than Palin…

Dr. J14:17 February 23, 2012

Oh IP, you are a doozy.  We would never think you would automatically anoint Heinrich (Marty) over Hector, now would you?  I’m sure you would be as happy with Hector as Marty, que no?  But you do have it correct about the GOP Prez guys, they are dead meat in New Mexico, and probably about 38 other states, what a sorry field the GOP has this time, even worse than McCain, and I didn’t think that was even possible 4 years ago.

RichardC12:53 February 23, 2012

Rasmussen is a former GOP pollster who often appears on Fox News to trumpet his polls findings. As others have noted, Rasmussen has a pronounced bias towards the GOP.

And if Obama is running so far ahead of Romney and Santorum in New Mexico, it appears that Obama is headed to a similar margin of victory nationally as he had in 2008.

IcarusPhoenix12:13 February 23, 2012

For that matter, I also meant to say Nate Silver… I had a Josh Marshall article up at the time.  I am, apparently, having a supremely confused day.

IcarusPhoenix10:59 February 23, 2012

Sorry; I meant to say Heinrich/Balderas-Wilson race.

IcarusPhoenix10:58 February 23, 2012

It should be noted, Hemingway, that Josh Silver (whose blog you link to below) gives Rasmussen a 4-point Republican home field advantage on average – meaning that they tend to show numbers for GOP candidates that are an average of four points higher than they really are – and, conversely, tends to rate Democrats about an equal amount lower.  This being the case, one has to wonder how far behind the President the GOP candidates are really trailing.  It should also be noted that this trend really only holds true in national breakdowns; their state-levels are far less consistent, and the Heinrich-Wilson race numbers probably couldn’t be counted on even if they weren’t already a statistical tie.

Hemingway09:19 February 23, 2012

Interestingly Rasmussen’s polls have faced heavy criticism. It supposedly has a flawed methodology. Here is an 2010 article describing the biased results that is still true today.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
 
When I hear Rasmussen, I ignore the poll. As one critic wrote: Rasmussen’s “cavalier attitude toward polling convention,” mostly done in the interest of cost savings, and closes with “the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.”
 

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