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Johnson the Libertarian could impact prez race
Former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson
Former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson is set to switch parties and run for president as a libertarian; if recent polling is any indication, he could have a significant impact in New Mexico and nationally.
Johnson plans a news conference in Santa Fe on Dec. 28, according to his Facebook page, to announce something that isn’t specified. Politico is reporting that Johnson will announce at that event that he’s seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination for president.
From Politico:
“The move has been expected for weeks — Johnson had run a New Hampshire-centric effort that never got him past a blip in the polls. He appeared at only two nationally televised debates, and only one in which other major candidates took part.
“Johnson expressed deep disillusionment with the process as his libertarian message failed to catch fire and he received almost no attention for his bid. He soon began flirting with the Libertarians when it became clear that he was gaining no traction in GOP primaries.”
Polling shows Johnson would be a factor
Johnson said nearly a month ago that he was considering the switch. Recent polling suggests it might be a good move for him, and bad for Republicans. This week’s national Public Policy Polling survey (I know, I know… you can read about the debate over PPP’s work here) found close races between President Barack Obama and potential Republican candidates. Obama led most by a few points, but Mitt Romney led Obama 47 percent to 45 percent.
Put Johnson in the mix as a third-party candidate and he had the support of 9 percent of those surveyed – and tipped the race to Obama, who led Romney 43 percent to 41 percent.
In New Mexico – an important swing state that’s going to get lots of attention next year – Johnson took even more voters from the GOP, according to PPP. In a potential three-way matchup with Obama and Romney, Johnson had 23 percent to Romney’s 27 percent and Obama’s 44 percent. Replace Romney with Newt Gingrich and, in New Mexico, it was 20 percent for Johnson to Gingrich’s 28 percent and Obama’s 45 percent.
What I haven’t seen is polling on what would happen nationally or in New Mexico if the candidates were Obama, libertarian-leaning Republican Ron Paul (who suddenly has a shot at the GOP nomination), and Johnson.
But what is clear, according to PPP, is that Johnson hurts Republicans. From PPP’s national poll’s memo:
“We find that pretty much all of the big names who have been mentioned for potential independent bids would take a lot more voters from Romney than Obama.”
‘People want a third party. Until they don’t.’
Is 2012 the right year for a third-party candidate? Maybe. Maybe not.
The Washington Post blog The Fix has good analysis in an article headlined ‘People want a third party. Until they don’t:’
“One look at the deep dissatisfaction coursing through the American electorate — record disapproval numbers for Congress, President Obama at the lowest ebb of his time in office — and it becomes clear that a desire for something/someone else in politics is as strong as it’s been since, at least, 1992.
“One in three people said the two party system is ‘seriously broken’ and the country needs a third party in a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. In an April 2011 Gallup poll, 52 percent of respondents said that the two parties do such a poor job that a third party is necessary.
“Couple those numbers with the dissatisfaction with President Obama among the Democratic base, the ongoing — and seemingly endless — search for new candidates in the Republican presidential field and efforts made by outside groups to win ballot access for a third party candidate in 2012 and it seems like a no-brainer for someone to leap at the opportunity.
“But, no one has. Why not?
“Largely because while the idea of a third party candidate is appealing in theory, it’s far less viable in practice.”
Here’s why, from The Fix:
“Inherent in the disparity between the number of people who like the idea of a third party and those who would vote for a third party candidate is that we, as human beings, like winners. Or we at least like the idea that our vote matters.
“Unless and until a third party candidate can prove that he/she is a genuine contender and not simply a spoiler — ala Ralph Nader in 2000 — no one but pure one-issue voters (or those deeply disenchanted with the two party system) will be willing to, in effect, throw away their vote.”
First, Johnson must win the nomination
Can Johnson change that? Time will tell. In the meantime, he has a Libertarian nomination to fight for. From Politico:
“Now, Johnson will seek the Libertarian nod at the party’s national convention in Las Vegas in May. Party officials said last month that they are holding out hope that Paul and former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura would contend for their nomination, though Paul is now the GOP front-runner in Iowa and Ventura is vacationing at his home in Mexico, where he does not have a telephone or an Internet connection.
“Libertarians, who were on the ballot in 45 states, are aiming to be on the ballot in all 50 for 2012. One problem Johnson could face is so called ‘sore loser’ laws that will keep him from appearing as a third party candidate next November because he’s already on the GOP primary ballots in Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan and Missouri.”
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Like Johnson or not, I think he’ll win the election. Personally, he’s too liberal for me, but he could beat Obama. My prediction is that Obama will not do as well in the election as he’s done in the polls. People who voted for him paraded their decision for months, now, they don’t want to lose face. They’ll continue supporting him publicly, however, when they walk into the voting booth it will be a different story. Most democrats are not going to vote for a republican, but they will vote for a third party.
I’m a conservative but I’ve realized that if the Presidential election comes down to Romney, Obama, and Johnson, well, we are all stuck voting for a “liberal” anyway. Johnson has a much more conservative fiscal record than Mitt Romney.
Don’t fret Artiofab, I can take your attempt to paint a picture of me. I’m tough. It comes with the territory when an individual like myself calls out what is wrong no matter whether it exposes the wrongs of Democrats or Republicans. I live by truths. Batter and bully away!
Independents are in the majority, the year is 2012.
O NO! My eyeballs and my tender ears will forever be contaminated by Betty Bowers. Love her.
I guess it is related in that the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson is the only one that is not pandering to the loony Theocrats. It is a Libertarian ideal that people are free to worship as they please. RP has even skirted this in pandering to the crazies by saying it should be up to the states. Well, no, belief in a free society would be up to the individual and their religion should be kept to themselves at work and in government. I hate proselytizing.
Teaching the boys that the police state is puritanical even as the base culture fills their little noggins with obscenity in an Orwellian tactic of mind control.
QuiTam,
It took me a few days to get the point of your comment, but I think I figured it out. You were trying to be funny by implying that I can’t comprehend a language and simultaneously abusing said language (by having a sentence with an open parenthetical statement and a random Capitalization. I salute you for your willingness to self-parody, and am sure that the new year will give you many more opportunities to do so here.
More to the point, I’m sorry that I tried to be helpful and educate you on netiquette. I assumed you simply didn’t know any better, when the actual problem is you choose to be rude. I hope that works out well for you?
Everyone else,
Sorry for the personal comment. For what little my opinion is worth, I think that most commentators here are polite individuals and I applaud Heath and the team for assembling such a worthwhile site.
I think that perhaps Mr. Johnson is frustrated at being dround out of the political process by wel oiled political machines from both the left and the right. He has some interesting ideas, and I too voted for him, but indiviudals on the left are going to stick with what they know. That is, a social welfare system that needs to support a wide range of projects, people and ideologies. too bad the economic system can not keep up with this wish list. Gary might be a voice of reason in many areas. But I think the press has their minds made up on who they want to support on both the left and right, thus leaving very little room for the libertarian voice.
Personally, I look for civil unrest here shortly. We might get all we can from the 1% ers…but when they are gone who gets it next? the 5% ers…25%ers where does the insanity stop. At least Johnson has a history of keeping government lean and mean. You can not say the same about the other candidates on the right or left..with perhaps the exception of Perry.
Thinker, I agree with you about the impact of Johnson in NM, if he is selected as the Lib. candidate. That is far from a given, but I suspect the left wing is funding his run, as they are the America Elects people (now on the ballot in 13 states, mostly swing states, no surprise), in hope of driving independents and moderate Repubs to their candidates as the only remaining choice. This would indeed hand the election to Obama, and these 3rd party groups are well funded, from many sources in favor of an Obama victory, so I suspect that will work. However, it will be a hollow victory for Obama, as the Senate is very likely to be in Repub hands, and the House is not in doubt. That would effectively neuter the left wing agenda for Obama’s second term. I also agree with you about the utter failure and incompetence Johnson showed while ruling NM.
“… it is you who continually attacks individuals personally on this website.”
Funny, you’re the only one who ever makes that accusation towards me; indeed, since you insist that anyone disagreeing with your opinions is launching a personal attack, this is unsurprising. Considering that the “please” was not a part of the bolded text and that “cease and desist” is a legal term demanding mandatory compliance, I’m fairly confident in my assessment; you’d think that someone whose screenname is itself a legal term would know that. I commend you on an excellent job of avoiding any responses to anything substantive, either about your tendencies for misdirection or about the article itself, which – as artiofab and JusticeP have also pointed out – not one of your comments does.
Thinker:
Your commentary about Johnson’s executive skill is refreshing; I’m always amazed how few people remember how ludicrously unengaged and ill-informed he was; many of the same people who criticized Governor Richardson every single time he was absent from the state – even on the occasions that those absences were specifically related to his duties as governor – treated Governor Johnson’s absences to compete in Iron Man competitions as perfectly acceptable – even laudable – uses of the chief executive’s time, or at the very least as charming diversions. This is a man who ran a bad business that was notorious for ill-treatment of employees, and who, after campaigning on a platform that consisted of little more than a promise to veto a record number of bills passed by the Democratically-controlled legislature, frequently vetoed those bills without reading them, including a publicly supported by his wife, his daughter and himself. Come to think of it, I have to wonder sometimes if he read things that he signed; after all, when he signed the gaming compact, he was agreeing to something which, at the time, wasn’t even legal in the state of New Mexico.
Entirely aside from Gary Johnson’s obvious ineptitude a governance, I have trouble fathoming why anyone would want to elect a man who – despite possessing a degree in political science – can’t tell the difference between the separate and equal legislative branch of government and a subordinate board of directors (which, yes, is exactly what he claimed the legislature was to him), who supports the death penalty for minors, and who, when the marijuana decriminalization movement was in its infancy, thought that he would be able to take a leadership position by suggesting the outright legalization of all drugs, once going so far as to say on national television that heroine was less dangerous that alcohol.
“Despicable” videos and “Cease and Desist” orders aside…
I for one am quite happy to see Gary Johnson third party into the race: He could be our own Ross Perot (minus the flake-outs)!
However, as interesting as some of his rhetoric and philosophy is, I would never vote for him. Sadly, I retain the memory of what he REALLY does when he’s an Executive.
“If you’re going to attempt to give me orders – “cease and desist, time is of the essence”, though I doubt anyone but you will ever know what is so urgent – then I feel it only fair that I get to counter with one of my own; NEVER call me a liar again” – IcarusPhoenix
“Please cease and desist, time is of the essence” – Qui Tam
This is exactly the sort of intellectually dishonest semantics that you will stop IcarusPhoenix. It is obviously not an order it is a polite request. Furthermore, it is you who continually attacks individuals personally on this website. It is you IcarusPhoenix who does damage to your own reputation.
Ah yes, Qui Tam’s typical, “You don’t agree with me, therefore you are a liar and/or unintelligent,” defense. Seriously, Qui Tam, you just launched personal attacks against two people – one of whom (oddly enough, myself) was primarily defending you – and you seem to be under the impression that this constitutes a contribution to the debate. If you’re going to attempt to give me orders – “cease and desist, time is of the essence”, though I doubt anyone but you will ever know what is so urgent – then I feel it only fair that I get to counter with one of my own; NEVER call me a liar again. I have spent my entire career cultivating a reputation for scrupulous honesty, and quite frankly, while it is not in any way damaging to my professional reputation, having my integrity – even that of my anonymous pseudonym – questioned by another anonymous internet personality who – among many other bizarre habits – frequently claims they didn’t write things that they wrote on the same page, claims to be a Democrat but almost exclusively attacks Democratic politicians and constantly links to right-wing “news” sites, and who thinks that certainty is the same as proof has become surprisingly irritating.
As for the statement you claim was a lie, I stand by it; in regards to conspiracy sites and propaganda sites, a very recent example – barely over a week old – of such links is still available on the following article: http://www.nmpolitics.net/index/2011/12/degree-of-certainty-is-the-core-issue-in-identity-questions/ Indeed, I pointed it out at the time. It is merely an added bonus that your later comment also includes fantastic evidence of artiofab’s statement that your links frequently lack relevance to either the discussion or the article on which they are posted – which, incidentally, I also pointed out at the time. As for the racist links, I’m afraid the best evidence of that no longer exists, as I was one of the few to see that you once linked – on an article on a similar subject as the one I just linked to, I might add – to an anti-immigrant website that, among many other unfortunate features, included a banner on the top depicting monkeys in sombreros. Luckily, Heath noticed and removed the offensive post, though I occasionally find myself wishing he had left it alone as a monument to the sort of person you truly are.
“he’s posted in the past to conspiracy theory sites, propaganda sites, and outright racist sites,” – there you go lying again IcarusPhoenix. Please cease and desist, time is of the essence.
Artiofab, when you start to comprehend the English language and can keep up with thread and/or subject topics (this one in regard to Presidential runs, I will consider your self appointed Judgeship. lol! “move on”…
QuiTam, in the terms of internet bulletin board manners, your random links here are attempts at thread-jacking, since they have nothing to do with the original post or the comments before it.
If your goal was to offend (at least) one of the other users of this site, you did so. Congrats, move on.
Qui Tam:
If you’re talking about Gardasil, then you need to get your facts straight; it went through a testing and approval process that was more than twice as long as average, it’s statistically quite safe, and the Texas law does not mandate anything; parents are allowed to choose not to get the vaccination for their daughters (should they feel like endangering their daughters lives…). Incidentally, New Mexico has the exact same law. I should know; I pushed for it for two years. I feel you are correct in your assessment of Governor Perry’s motives, though; Even when he does the right thing, he does it for the wrong reasons.
JusticeP:
I don’t really find either of Qui Tam’s video links “despicable”; indeed, in comparison to some of the links he’s posted in the past to conspiracy theory sites, propaganda sites, and outright racist sites, I find them positively benign. The first likely crosses the border into what many would consider sacrilege, but personally I don’t find an animated Jesus half as sacrilegious as the commercial of Governor Perry’s to which it was a response. The second, while trivializing and perhaps a little irritating in its delivery, doesn’t make any criticism of mainstream Christianity that isn’t being made by a lot of mainstream Christians.
qui tam: an another despicable video!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaqdFnjKClE&feature=relmfu
And in the first video I posted, “Jesus” is totally correct when he calls out Rick Perry for being a “whining secessionist” and perhaps instead of running for President, the Nation should manditorily innoculate Perry with a widely untested vaccine that was made by a company he received contributions from…
Qui Tam, you have become an accessory to a despicable YouTube video.
Please! anything to help the situation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=wawQUQZtn28&NR=1
As an Independent, I am glad to see Gary Johnson enter the race outside of the two party system. It brings back memories of John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992. It is once again a statement on how the Republicans have managed to shoot themselves in their own foot again. I would like the dialog between Johnson, Obama and Romney. At least Johnson will be on a bigger stage than the likes of Bachman, Gingrich, Santorum and the other losers. It will be a close race and it will likely come down to the matter of which way New Mexico goes and their 5 electoral votes. Johnson is a smart cookie.
dsensiba, as a conservative Democrat who votes very independently when the left wing is running from my party, I can tell you I would never vote for gentlemen like Johnson and Paul. One wants to legalize drugs and has little experience, the other doesn’t care who has nuclear weapons or in defending America. Sorry, but Obama would look pretty good to me with either of those two running. An qofdisks, I know that is the sop politicians use, but I am far too experienced and sophisticated about pols to believe that one anymore, maybe when I was younger…but today it is all about power, ego, and money when someone runs for this office.
Dr. J
I think that Gary Johnson’s motive is that he is a public servant that cares about the direction this nation is headed. Whether you agree with him or not, I think he just really cares and is called to duty by his conscious.
As a frustrated libertarian-leaning republican, I’m glad to see Johnson doing this.
The establishment big-government neoconservatives and their allies in corporate media do the same thing to us every election cycle, pulling dirty tricks and misrepresenting our ideas to make us sound like unhinged mental basketcases. When they can’t get away with that, and we gain ground, there’s a media blackout and we’re treated like the 13th floor of a building.
By the end of the primary season, we wind up with somebody like McCain that we don’t like at all, but many of us vote for because he’s slightly better than the alternative, the ‘lesser of two evils’. Anybody who refuses to vote for one of the two major parties is scolded for wasting the vote, or worse, told that a vote for our preferred third party candidate is a vote for the other guy.
It’s the establishment’s turn to eat it this time. If Gingrich or Romney get the GOP nomination, they stand no chance of being elected in a three-way race. The only way they can win is to select somebody who could effectively prevent the LP from taking the votes, and pretty much the only way that’s going to happen is with Ron Paul.
If republicans voting in the primaries let their hatred of Paul get in the way of selecting an electable candidate, they have nobody to blame but themselves when they lose the general. They can’t blame Johnson, they knew he was running and had their chance to pick somebody who could win.
If anything, they should be grateful he announced early enough for them to avoid losing the election.
I know this comment will be met with a mixture of denial and anger by the mainstream republicans who read this, but it’s the truth. The sooner they get through the rest of the stages of grief (bargaining, depression, acceptance), the better. I just hope they come to their senses in time for primary voting.
Not so out of touch L.E.Liesner. Go to his web-site and see for yourself. He would be a true defender of the Constitution. What is so out of touch with promoting Freedom? What is do out of touch with reining in the policing of the world?
http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/
As I mentioned before, what could Johnson’s actual motive be here? To hand NM and perhaps some other tight, swing state to Obama? That is the only result that is possible, so is that his intention? If it is, who is paying him off and supporting him? If it is not, then is this all about his huge ego? Not many choices for a motive here.
Johnson was a good governor and I voted for him twice, but I would not vote for him as a Libertarian candidate. His Libertarian views are parallel to Ron Paul’s and way out of touch with this country. Neither one would be for our country.