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Beltway insiders say Johnson has no chance

By | 4/05/11, 7:55 am | Commentary

Gary Johnson

Last week, Heath all but wrote the “is-former-New-Mexico-Governor-Gary-Johnson-running-for-president-in-2012?” blog for me. According to Heath, Johnson is running, and this isn’t a surprise:

“Former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson will formally launch his presidential campaign next month in New Hampshire, Fox News and Politico are reporting.

“Johnson, a libertarian-leaning Republican, plans to skip the step of creating an exploratory committee, Politico reported. Fox News reported that Johnson’s announcement will come sometime after April 15 – tax day.

“The announcement isn’t a surprise. Talk of the tea party favorite running for president in 2012 really started ramping up in early 2009.”

Well, the former governor’s run is actually a surprise to me and the majority of my inside-the-beltway network. And, yes, this perhaps screams to Washington’s ignorance regarding the non-mainstream Republican contenders out in the field.

When I asked one conservative networker I know about former Governor Johnson’s chances in 2012, the response was:

“like a puff of green smoke…”

Implying, poof, gone.

When I asked a different and well-respected Republican operative about Johnson, I was given a more lengthy response (albeit similar to the one above):


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“At actually winning the nomination? Only if there were some natural disaster at a debate he didn’t get invited to that killed all the other candidates and all the filing deadlines had passed. Although even then, I’d feel confident betting we’d nominate someone else from the convention floor.

“But seriously, the only chance he has at being a factor at all is if neither Paul (Ron/Rand) runs. If that happens, he’ll pick up most of their base of support and manage to be a small annoyance to the rest of the field. If one of the Pauls do run, then he won’t even be able to qualify as an annoyance.

“Numbers wise, Gallup poll from yesterday has him at the least known of any of the potential candidates, with 14% name recognition among R’s & R leaners (including below Cain at 21% and Roemer at 19%). He also clocks in with the lowest number of people who hold strong feelings about him either way, with a combined strongly fav/unfav of only 4%.

“The only press he’ll get will be one of two stories: 1) the one you’re supposed to write now: Does He Have a Chance??? and 2) if he says anything really outrageous (a la Cain last week saying he wouldn’t appoint Muslim judges or cabinet secretaries). Otherwise, he’s in the fourth paragraph, which will start with something like “Also visiting the area yesterday…”

Another close-to-the GOP operative put it like this:

“I respect the fact that former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson had a fabulous track record and reputation as Governor of New Mexico…but that’s just it, he’s a Governor from New Mexico several cycles removed. This race is going to be price tagged at $1 billion and I just don’t see Johnson cinching that on the Republican end. Finally, feel free to throw me off the boat, but since when was Johnson the tea party’s favorite?”

These are just a sampling of thoughts from non-New Mexicans. I would be curious to hear what you, New Mexicans, have to say.

Sarah Lenti is the blogger behind NMPolitics.net’s The Savvy. E-mail her at sarah@nmpolitics.net. For full disclosure, Lenti is a Republican strategist who works closely with potential GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s PAC.

Carl Spackler20:04 April 6, 2011

@Sarah

Don’t mean to be rude, but what’s your interest in Romney?

Admittedly having never met him, I have to reserve judgment. But, the politico article below pretty much sums up my impression of Romney.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/50786.html

I feel like ‘flip-flopper’ is too cute for Romney’s contradictions. It scares me how intently he can deny past positions on abortion and gay rights or explain them away. (To be fair, positions I would support) How can he go from a emotional story about a family friend that died from a back alley abortion and proudly citing his mother’s pro-choice stance in her ill-fated senate race to being staunchly pro-life. Being more “pro-gay rights” than Ted Kennedy is hard to walk back. He does it with the same meandering 5 minute explanations his father had in his own presidential bid, except his dad his dad appeared more earnest to me. There’s a difference between a communication and a pandering problem.

To quote the article, “To me, these issues and the way Romney has handled them are characterological and stamp him as ethically unqualified to be entrusted with the presidency. To his former advisers and supporters quoted in the Times, they are merely strategic challenges to be overcome.”

This is a harsh judgment, please prove me wrong. Honestly, if he wins, I hope the current counsel he’s receiving from Sununu results in another David Souter.

Show Me17:55 April 6, 2011

A rare moment of clarity from someone on the right. Looks like Dr. J and I both agree that the current Rep. field for Pres. doestt have the right stuff. I still dont believe that Obama is shoe-in because most people on the right dont seem to have any such clarity when fairly evaluating him. Glad Moliter is a big T-Paw fan…or maybe good ‘ol visionary Haley Barbour. We have a long way to go.

IcarusPhoenix17:28 April 6, 2011

Mr. Molitor:

If you’re going to use that over-worn snarky cliché in place of actual dialogue, might I recommend aiming it at someone who isn’t a raging conservative themselves? When you say “libertarian thinking” is on the rise, I look to your (apparent) definition of the phrase, and all I can think is that what is on the rise is rampaging historical ignorance.

While I am certainly less.. optimistic… than Dr. J about the President’s reelection chances, I can easily agree with his assessment of the current field of GOP candidates; Harold Meyerson’s column today put it best; modern conservatives are doing everything in their power to repeal the twentieth century.

Thomas Molitor17:18 April 6, 2011

@Dr. J

Glad to see that that “hope and change” is working for you.

Dr. J10:37 April 6, 2011

It’s true that Obama is a shoe-in to win. The reason is that no Repubs have surfaced with any traction, charisma, abilities, or broad interest that would give Obama a run for his money. You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, and the Repubs have nothing but tired, shop-worn, ho-hum sow’s ears on offer.

Thomas Molitor10:12 April 6, 2011

Libertarian thought is the fastest growing movement out there today. I refer not to the Libertarian Party, but Libertarian thinking, especially among younger voters. If Johnson can raise his profile on shows such as Fox’s Freedom Watch with Judge Napolitano and John Stossel, and roll-up the anti-government, liberty, tea party, and constitutionists’ messages into one powerful, simple brand personality positioning – who knows? Remember, Clinton in 1992, was one of nine primary candidates and an unknown philandering governor from Arkansas.

Sarah Lenti07:54 April 6, 2011

To one of the earlier commenters — yes, you are correct, it’s no secret that my loyalties and hopes lie with Governor Romney. After working on his book, I am convinced he is the wisest potential candidate out there. That’s me.

That said, to David Olson’s point — it’s going to be very hard to beat the incumbent. As a friend/Democratic strategist recently said to me “the President does not know how to lose.”

Time will tell.

jivaro9905:47 April 6, 2011

The old say is that “you should never count a man out until the fight is over” and I would say the fight has just begun. Gary Johnson has a good chance to come out with all guns blazing and win the people over.

He would make a good candidate simply because he believes in what he stands for. At least he has the wisdom to see that legalization of marijuana is the way to cut the head off the snakes known as the cartels. I would give him a chance of 8 on a scale of 1 to 10.

Everyone wants to make marijuana the demon of the ages, but so did the populace during prohibition want to make alcohol the demon of that age. Anything that is illegal creates its own demons and they are the criminal element. There will always be people who will abuse any product; even the food they eat.

DavidOlson33301:54 April 6, 2011

I correctly picked Martinez for Governor, before the primary–let me have some fun with this one too; These are not my interests, just my predictions: Plain and simple, inspite of the disappointment with Obama, no Republican will beat him; and Johnson will not win the nomination to run against him. Go ahead; prove me wrong.

reddot20:52 April 5, 2011

I’m a MA resident, but I’d like to chime in here…

Carl is right, Gary Johnson will be the most interesting candidate in the race. Later this month he’s going to hike and ski Tukerman’s Ravine on Mount Washington, possibly the coolest campaign event in New Hampshire history.

Johnson polls well with traditional Democratic voters. Without a real primary on the Democratic side, Johnson could get a lot of independent voters who would not usually vote in the GOP primary. Does he have a chance? Of course. The real question is, will the GOP give him a chance. If the national party keeps him out of debates or local parties keep him out of events, it will be very difficult for him. The GOP’s decision has wider implications — do Republicans want to be a “big tent” party or just a bastion of conservative orthodoxy?

Hemingway14:40 April 5, 2011

If you are Irish, Gary Earl Johnson might be your Capall Dorcha for President. “Big J” might end up to be our President yet. The country needs a handy man.

qofdisks14:23 April 5, 2011

That is a good point Morrow. Johnson would may a worthy civil servant because does still have a high regard for civil liberties. He doesn’t just condone those fake liberties for the big corporations and the rich either.

Carl Spackler13:58 April 5, 2011

The party establishment derided his chances the first time he ran for governor. So he’s overcome quixotic claims before.
The only warrants brought up by your GOP insiders is his poor showing in polls and that he’s been out of office for too long. Fair. But the primary season hasn’t started yet. Nobody, including Governor Johnson, have declared except for Cain. Polls are irrelevant at this point because they’re indicative of what people would choose between the 2-4 candidates they’ve heard of. Palin is unlikely to run, and Huckabee’s sated belly is probably a greater indication of whether of not he’s going to run (But he might be heartened by recent numbers). That leaves Pawlenty, Romney, and a field of other folks that reside in a stack of cards waiting for an unknown to come along and blow them down.

The other point, Johnson’s fundraising potential, is well taken. Still, his unique qualities might lower the fundraising bar because the media is eager to discuss something different from the status quo.

Either way, why do people focus on chances at this point. Why isn’t there any reference to his ideas in this blog update (which you could use to further deride his chances). Marijuana legalization (or decriminalization), removing the federal and state governments from the process of defining marriage, and huge, specific budget cuts constitute a refreshing approach. They might not be the answer, but change is inevitable and one can only gauge a candidate’s “chances” by using criteria from the past which has limited predictive powers for the future

I find it weird how experts/insiders can haughtily knock Johnson as silly even though his ideas are serious by anyone’s measure across the political spectrum (Not to mention his record). Being able to deftly navigate people’s ingrained ignorance doesn’t sound like a source of pride in my book … but I’m digressing from the outside.

Johnson is a former two term governor and successful entrepreneur. Herman Cain, Donald Trump, Buddy Roemer, John Bolton, and Fred Karger at best fall into one of those categories.

Show Me13:48 April 5, 2011

Let me guess, Lenti’s next column will be “Romney In the Race…the Favorite for the Nomination”

Cmon Heath, this isnt worthy of printing from someone with a vested interest in all non Romney Repub. candidates not winning the Rep. nomination. You should be charging Romney for these ads, i mean “columns.”

The truth is the public would rather elect someone authentic like Johnson, than a flip flopping varment gun shooting panderer like Romney. Maybe thats why beltway insiders like Lenti are trying to discredit him early. You had it right in an earlier column Heath…its way too early to count him out.

Morrow Hall09:38 April 5, 2011

Sometimes a quixotic presidential foray results in higher name recognition and even job offers. Secretary of Something? Ambassador to Somewhere? Director of the DEA? (LOL, etc.) Might be worth it.

stever09:37 April 5, 2011

No chance

qofdisks09:11 April 5, 2011

Beltway insiders do not have this nation’s well-being in mind. They serve their corporate overlords that fund their mega campaign industry. The way our system is set up, a candidate had better be a company man lock stock and barrel. The powers that be in the beltway hate Ron Paul and you saw how their corporate owned media went after John Edwards even before the scandal. It is important that guys like Gary Johnson and Dennis Kucinich get into the race to at least provide a voice in the narrative of the direction this country should take to retain viability as a free and prosperous nation long term. I support Gary Johnson’s run and I would consider voting for him.

Dr. J08:03 April 5, 2011

The quotes you have above about his chances reflect what I think. He doesn’t even have a slim chance, just none. The man is a kook, he couldn’t be elected dog catcher in 49 states, he was just lucky (like Richardson) to run here. Please, this man is a waste of time and other people’s money. Anyone who would contribute to him is not very smart or just likes to waste money for lost causes.

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