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Poll confirms Martinez’s lead over Denish
Susana Martinez (left, courtesy photo) and Diane Denish (photo by Heath Haussamen)
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez has a five-point lead over Democratic opponent Diane Denish, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll.
Martinez led 48 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent of those surveyed preferring another candidate and 6 percent undecided. The survey of 750 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
When those surveyed who Rasmussen Reports calls “leaners” are included – those who haven’t made up their mind but are leaning toward a candidate – Martinez’s lead climbs to seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The poll – the first to be released publicly since early June – confirms what I and other political analysts have been saying for weeks: that Martinez has pulled ahead of Denish in the governor’s race. Democrats and Republicans have done polling that hasn’t been released publicly, and both campaigns have been acting for some time as though Martinez had the lead.
The poll confirms a significant shift in Martinez’s favor. When Rasmussen first tested potential GOP candidates against Denish in March, she led Martinez by 19 points. Just before and after Martinez won the primary, the two candidates were statistically tied.
The big poll is yet to come: Research and Polling Inc. is conducting a survey of the race this week for an Albuquerque Journal article that will publish Sunday. The Research and Polling surveys are generally considered the most accurate in New Mexico.
More on the Rasmussen poll
In the Rasmussen Reports poll, 76 percent of Democrats said they back Denish, while 86 percent of Republicans said they back Martinez. Martinez had a lead of more than 2-1 over Denish among “voters not affiliated with either major political party.”
That’s key: No Republican can win a statewide race in New Mexico without Democrats and independents.
Martinez and Republicans have worked hard to tie Denish, the lieutenant governor, to Gov. Bill Richardson, and the poll reveals that the strategy remains a good one. Richardson’s approval rating remains low. A combined 40 percent said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the job he’s doing, while a combined 57 percent said they strongly or somewhat disapprove.
But it’s not clear from the poll that voters are tying Denish to Richardson. Her favorable/unfavorable numbers aren’t that different than Martinez’s. Denish was viewed very favorably by 25 percent of those surveyed, somewhat favorably by 28 percent, somewhat unfavorably by 20 percent and very unfavorably by 22 percent. Martinez was viewed very favorably by 28 percent of those surveyed, somewhat favorably by 27 percent, somewhat unfavorably by 18 percent and very unfavorably by 22 percent.
Rasmussen Reports rates the race as a toss-up. I have said, in the monthly NMPolitics.net newsletter that goes to qualifying donors, that the race leans in Martinez’s favor, but I expect Denish to gain ground before Election Day.
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ksparks:
While I wouldn’t call the Heinrich/Barela race (since NM-1 is always one of the tightest in the country), and the Teague/Tinsley race is surprisingly tight for Southern New Mexico, the Martinez/Denish race is certainly going to be impressive to watch, one way or the other. Martinez was a good choice in candidates, and should could well beat the Lt. Governor – though, of course, I rather hope she doesn’t. Chandler, on the other hand, I think will put up a very good fight, but ultimately lose.
Duran though? Hell, I’m voting for her, and I’m hardly the only Democrat who is going to do so. Frankly, the only reason we kept voting for Herrera all these years is because the GOP just wasn’t putting up anyone worth voting for until now.
Lewis, Barela, and Lujan are all safe, of course, and Powell will likely win back the Land Commissioner’s office. The CDs-1 and -2 races, the AG, and the Governor’s race are all going to be great shows.
Yo, Ellen Wedum, Thank you for the correction. My fingers were flurring too fast and I forgot to proofread. I appreciate your attention to detail.
ksparks wrote, “November 2nd we’ll be popping those corks for Susana, Matt Chandler, Diana Duran, Jon Barela, and Steve Pearce.”
Yo, it’s DIANNA Duran. Not that I plan to vote for her, but I do live in the same county.
It would be nice if the media would take a step back and let the “people” make the decision on who will be our next governor and stop influencing the attitude of the voters towards Susana Martinez. That is ethically wrong but again the climate in this country is so mean spirited!
llaj is a notorious left-wing apologist…I wouldn’t really trust anything s/he writes.
Rasmussen is a notorious right-wing polling organization…I wouldn’t really trust anything they produce.
I agree with jeffnm, with the name recognition and funding that Denish has, one wouldn’t normally still be lagging this far behind in the polls. Bobwolfe, we’re NOT popping the champagne corks just yet, we’re clicking on the DONATE button on Susana’s webpage a few more times in the next 2 1/2 months to keep Susana’s lead and build on it. November 2nd we’ll be popping those corks for Susana, Matt Chandler, Diana Duran, Jon Barela, and Steve Pearce.
I can’t wait for 2012 because with this momentum, Michael Sanchez and Jeff Bingaman should be pretty nervous.
How many incumbents, or quasi-incumbents, have you ever seen win election when polling at 43% in this stage of a campaign? Buehler? Buehler?
This poll does show that Ms. Denish’s refusal to unlink herself from Richardson and the corruption of La Politica around the state is hurting her. Her denial of her association with these pols and their history in NM will not satisfy voters looking for hope and change. You apparently will get more of the same with Denish, not a good platform in today’s environment of voter discontent.
Bobwolfe, the margin of error is smaller than Martinez’s lead in the poll.
Heath, this is what’s called a “statistical tie.” And being that registered dems outnumber repubs in NM, I wouldn’t go popping the champagne corks just yet jivar099 & Ramirez.
Very interesting – This is great news for New Mexico. Coincidentally, the Democrat Governor’s Association is on the airwaves with an ad bashing Susana Martinez and it’s official; the Democrats are running scared and worried that their golden girl Denish may be loosing control of the race and possibly control of the Governorship.
All Democrat candidates have reason to worry, their “recovery summer” has fizzled and has not provided any jobs, just made our economy worse. The best defense they have is to demonize Martinez for her “misuse” of funds, despite looking at their own tainted track record from the past 8 years.
Great days are ahead for New Mexico. With Susana Martinez leading us we can clean up this state and stand with our heads held high. She has proven her metal and will make a great Governor.