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Poll raises questions, but CD1 race is officially hot
Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich
If you had asked me over the weekend where the 1st Congressional District race stood, I would have told you Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich was probably leading Republican challenger Jon Barela by about 10 points.
So I was as shocked as anyone when KOB-TV released its new SurveyUSA poll Monday evening that shows Barela leading by six points.
The poll has Barela leading 51 percent to 45 percent. It was conducted Thursday-Sunday, surveyed 559 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. Barela led among all age groups and among men, Anglos and independents.
I searched late Monday afternoon and into the evening for someone who expected this result. I didn’t find anyone – Republican, Democrat or otherwise. In fact, Heinrich’s staff was quick to give New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan a polling memo from a survey it conducted two weeks ago that had Heinrich ahead by 12 points.
That survey, conducted July 8-13 by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, polled 505 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
So, what to make of the SurveyUSA poll? Everyone is guessing right now. The poll is an anomaly that doesn’t match with any other thus far. In May, Heinrich released a poll showing him ahead 17 points. And in February, a poll from a Democratic firm showed Heinrich ahead nine points.
However, that doesn’t mean the new poll shouldn’t be taken seriously. As far as automated polls go, SurveyUSA’s are among the best. And the company has done a lot of polling in New Mexico.
Lots of questions
But Barela hasn’t been on TV. We’re in July, when there’s as much of a lull in the race as there will be before Election Day. What would have shifted the race so dramatically between Heinrich’s newest poll and the SurveyUSA poll?
The answer is that nothing probably shifted the race that dramatically. The more likely explanation comes in considering the margins of error in both surveys. Say at the time of Heinrich’s most recent poll he was really up nine points, which is plausible. And at the time of the SurveyUSA poll Barela was really ahead two points – which I’m also not buying, but there’s less of a swing between the two polls when you push things to the edge of the margin of error.
Both polls could also be a little off, especially in a place like Albuquerque. It was a city that was dramatically affected by the Barack Obama wave in 2008 – and that wave helped Heinrich win his first congressional race by 12 points.
There were tens of thousands of new registered voters in 2008. Will they vote this year? Should they be counted in the polls? Are people identifying themselves as likely voters when they’re really not?
What should be clear is this: The 1st Congressional District race is now officially a very hot contest – one more for Democrats to pour their all into when they’re already having trouble in the gubernatorial and 2nd Congressional District races. Because Barela hasn’t yet done TV, this poll isn’t about him. I would guess his name ID is only around 25 percent in the district. Barela’s lead in the survey is due to anti-incumbent sentiment. It’s anti-Heinrich, or at least anti-Washington.
A strong anti-incumbent mood in Albuquerque
And the anti-incumbent mood in Albuquerque is apparently huge this year. That has implications for more than the CD1 race. It’s bad for Democrats Diane Denish and Gary King in the gubernatorial and attorney general races. It may be bad up and down the ballot for Democrats.
It’s difficult to say. Hopefully we’ll see another CD1 poll soon to give us more data to analyze.
In the meantime, I’m going to guess that the anti-incumbent wave is strong in Albuquerque because the Obama wave was so strong there – a sort of equal-and-opposite-reaction kind of thing. And, whereas I would have guessed this weekend that Heinrich was ahead by about 10 points, I’m now going to speculate that he’s up 3-5 points – probably closer to five.
Considering that Barela has yet to air TV ads, that’s huge. It means Barela has a realistic shot of winning this race, if he can raise enough money. The new poll will help him raise cash. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which will air ads for Heinrich (or against Barela), has more than twice as much money on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee, which will come to Barela’s aid.
One more thought: In the context of this CD1 poll, I’d love to see a new poll of the 2nd District race between Democratic incumbent Harry Teague and Republican challenger Steve Pearce. This weekend, I would have told you my guess was that Pearce was ahead 3-5 points. Maybe his lead is actually greater.
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As a constituent of the 1st Congressional District, I have tried to take a good look at both Congressional Candidates as they get out and about more this cycle. Last night I thought I would drop in on Congressman Heinrich’s “Financial Wellness Fair” at the Los Volcanes senior center to get a take on his ideas of financial wellness, and how he is working to improve the job situation for us here at home. Several people attended, a podium was in place, and I know many were hoping to hear Heinrich speak. He did not. I was informed by staff that he would not speak after all.
I was VERY disappointed by this. Congressman, please let your constituents know what is happening in Washington. Make time for the people that pay your salary and give them some answers.
Heinrich is a typical Obama/Pelosi lapdog who follows everything they tell him to do and is ID’ed with their policies. That is a huge liability, and he will lose if he does not distance himself from them and move to a more moderate position on issues. His votes have probably doomed him to defeat already
but he can recover if he appears more moderate unlike the anti-business, left-wing positions he has had over the last 20 months.
This is going to be a very interesting race, and for some reason many pundits have given it the attention it deserves. Heinrich probably isn’t a bum, but he sure seems like a rubber stamp. Citizens of Albuquerque have always been very independent voters, in contrast to the Democratic North, and Conservative south. The first district has always been a mix of the two, electing a Republican congressman (or woman) for many years, yet electing a Democrat Mayor for many years, then a Republican, but still going heavy toward Obama in 2008. Does anyone see the trend?
Martin Heinrich has been anything but independent. He has voted with his party almost perfectly. 2008 was a referendum on change, and the people of the district gave Martin a shot; which is understandable. But now his votes have caused heads to turn, and perhaps he is not the right person to represent the area with such far-left views. Barela seems like a very interesting individual, who has always worked for his community. But we haven’t heard much from the guy, probably because he had no primary opponent. There should be a good deal of money invested in this race, and I think this may end up being the most competitive district in New Mexico, Pearce may be running away with it to the south, as is Lujan up north.
I wouldn’t classify Martin Heinrich as a bum, and these poll results are a little suspect, but it’s going to take way more than a charm offensive for CM Heinrich to get re-elected.
With Jon, what you see is what you get. No hidden agendas or caving to special interests. He’s top notch and a solid contender for this office. After Labor Day when the voters start seeing his tv ads, debating skills and genuine sincerity he’ll win them over. Heinrich’s an empty suit that rode in on Obama’s coattails.
Jon is a smart fellow, and is quickly building coalitions. I think he will pull this election off. I am very impressed.
Mr. Heinrich sailed in as the First District on the coat tales of the Obama landslide. But oh the times they are changing. I hope any way.
Jon connects very well with people, no matter what party. He has always worked for others in Albuquerque, and will work hard as a Congressman; he is well qualified for the job.
Shocked? You haven’t been paying attention to the people! Jon is out there meeting with the citizens and looking them in the eye. Martin is carefully controlling who has access and hiding behind technology. Martin’s own voting record will be his bane
I think the sleeper race is the Matt Chandler upset over Gary King in the Attorney General’s race. I think we are all going to wake up in November and need to learn about our new leaders.
In a “throw out the bums” election, everyone in office should be worried…. especially a 30-year career politician such as King.
Throw the bums out is gaining traction. The incumbents should be scared. Power to the people!