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Polling mania hits New Mexico
Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
Denish leads each of the five Republican gubernatorial candidates in survey released today
The first poll testing Republican gubernatorial hopefuls against Democratic candidate Diane Denish set off a great deal of debate among New Mexico’s political class today, and the chatter promises to continue Thursday with the release of polls of the state’s congressional races.
The Public Policy Polling survey found the lieutenant governor with leads against each of the five Republicans vying for the right to take her on in November. The Republican who did best against Denish was Pete Domenici Jr., who trailed by 5 percentage points, with 40 percent to Denish’s 45 percent.
Denish had a 47-33 percent lead over Janice Arnold-Jones, a 46-32 percent lead over both Susana Martinez and Doug Turner and a 48-30 percent lead over Allen Weh in the poll conducted by the Democratic firm.
The survey of 990 registered voters in New Mexico was conducted between Feb. 18 and 20 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Denish’s lead against each of the GOP candidates comes in spite of the fact that only 28 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job Gov. Bill Richardson is doing. In addition, President Barack Obama had the approval of 45 percent of those surveyed but the disapproval of 48 percent.
“Given Obama and Richardson’s low levels of popularity, Diane Denish is doing pretty well,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in the polling memo. “But a contest with Domenici certainly looks like it could be competitive.”
Domenici agreed.
“The Domenici campaign is ecstatic over the results of this poll,” Campaign Director Doug Antoon said. “If viewed purely scientifically, it is a death knell for 8-year incumbent Democrat Diane Denish. She should have a double-digit lead over all other opponents at this time. The opposite is true.”
Dem support makes Denish ‘the early frontrunner’
According to the polling company’s blog, “Independents are turning toward the GOP in New Mexico, reflecting the trends we are seeing on the national level. Denish trails with them in 4 of 5 potential contests, including a 15 point deficit against Domenici.”
“There are still a lot more Democrats than Republicans in the state though and Denish’s solid popularity with her own party’s voters makes her the early front runner,” the blog states.
Denish was the only gubernatorial candidate in the poll who had more people say they view her favorably than unfavorably. That, coupled with her lead over each GOP candidate in the poll, had the Denish campaign releasing a positive statement.
“Even in this hostile political climate, Diane Denish holds a lead against all of her potential opponents. That’s because New Mexicans view her as an independent voice and a champion for middle-class families and their jobs,” said Deputy Campaign Manager Chris Cervini.
Martinez, state GOP pounce
Though Domenici touted the poll, other Republicans were quick to pounce on it. The Martinez campaign released a “memo on polls” and urged taking early surveys like it “with a grain of salt.”
“Many, like the one released today by a liberal Democratic polling firm based in North Carolina, use questionable methodology by employing auto-dialers rather than live interviewers,” the memo states. “This makes quality control exceedingly difficult, as there is no mechanism to verify the survey is being conducted among actual voters.”
The Martinez memo also took issue with the fact that the poll showed high negative opinions of all the Republican candidates, stating that it “is not believable that they have achieved this net negative rating without a campaign having been meaningfully launched against them.”
And the state GOP released its own poll that showed a different result. The survey, conducted by the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, found that 44 percent of likely voters were likely to vote for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, while 40 percent said they were likely to vote for the Democratic candidate.
The poll didn’t use candidate names, and it did use live interviews, not automation, the GOP said. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Jan. 25-27, had a margin of error of 4.38 percent.
“Internal polling data seriously challenges the findings released today,” Ryan Cangiolosi, executive director of the state GOP, said in a news release. “And we remain confident that the Republican message of stamping out corruption and restoring fiscal responsibility will resonate with voters on Election Day.”
Lots of polls
The Public Policy Polling survey released today also found that both of New Mexico’s U.S. senators – Democrats Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall – had the approval of 48 percent of those surveyed, while 36 percent said they didn’t approve of the senators.
The state has been inundated with political polls in recent days. Late last week a New Mexico State University government professor released a poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary conducted by his class. And Republican 2nd Congressional District candidate Steve Pearce released a poll showing him with a slight lead in that race.
On Thursday, Public Policy Polling will release polling on that and the state’s other congressional races.
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Hey Jiva … sorry … sometimes my sarcasm gets hidden …
Yes, the spaceport and the train are short term risk but the possible future gain could vindicate Richardson as having true vision. I support these things. Now that Obama is privatizing NASA and space exploration, that space port could make NM THE global hub for space going economy. Mass transit is also far sighted as our gas source is so unstable. Mass transit capability is economic insurance and makes this state’s economy far more secure.
Diane Denish is the best candidate for governor and she is going to win.
Wedum, as the article states:
“The survey of 990 registered voters in New Mexico was conducted between Feb. 18 and 20 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.”
Heath, I see you are not going to post my comment. Will you address the question of whether this poll actually only questions registered voters or not? I still say it should only address likely voters. For example, Chaves county has approximately 30,520 registered voters, and approximately 22,150 of them voted in the 2008 general election. Those are the people who are likely to vote, and their opinion is much more valuable than a sample of all New Mexicans, or even all registered voters.
I wonder where Astute Observer sees the stellar performance of Diane Denish? All she has done is follow the dictates of Richardson. She never balked once at the excessive spending, the boondoggles such as the Bedpan in the Desert south of Truth or Consequences, that costs us millions and is a private enterprise, or the Rail Runner with no riders, etc. He tends to forget it is partially his money the Governor and Lt. Governor threw away. The present administration can’t even see far enough ahead to see we were going to have a huge deficit.
Now they can’t even balance that without taking more money out of the taxpayer’s already lean pockets. The polls are only spread around to get people to lean for the candidate. As the old cliché says, “it isn’t over till the fat lady sings.” What would be the best thing for this state is to sweep all the Progressives out of office and put in people who have good sense, such as Susana Martinez for Governor and Errol J Chavez for State Auditor and get rid of King as our Attorney General. We need people who will stop the graft and malfeasance of office.
I’m noting that 1) this is a General Election poll before the primaries are even fully underway 2) this shows that the BEST result for Diane Denish, after 7 years in office, is 45 percent and that should be rather shocking to Democrats, and 3) after discounting for the obvious name confusion between the former Senator and the younger Domenici, the 14-point deficit faced by Arnold-Jones, Martinez and Turner looks very surmountable, considering the campaign is not even on the radar for most Republicans, and the undecideds are still over 40%.
Also take note that this is not a poll of Republicans (it includes Democrats and Independents) and like the Martinez campaign said, a grain of salt is needed when assessing the performance of GOP candidates in their own contest.
Interesting,but other than the governors ratings, it is all a bunch of crap at this point. the campaign and election process is a marathon, not a sprint … both June and November are a distant goal. It is interesting that Denish isn’t stronger than she is – with seven years of stellar service behind her, and a hundred hours of public service announcements featuring her (although not as gaudy as Rebecca Vigil Giron), you’d think she’d have lower unfavorables and higher favorables. While not an apples to apples with the NMSU poll on the R candidates – this one seems a little more in line with what many of us would expect at this point – the ‘unfavorable’ figure is fairly constant for the Rs, with the variable being how well they are known (none of them very well yet) and ‘undecided’ being the big winner. Me thinks Lady Di better start looking for a new castle … the news is only going to get worse.