What does Berry’s victory mean for 2010?

A screen shot of the Albuquerque Journal’s coverage of Berry’s victory.

A screen shot of the Albuquerque Journal’s online coverage of Berry’s victory.

Does it reveal a GOP rebound? Anti-incumbent sentiment? A divided Democratic Party? Politicos share their thoughts as NM heads into next year’s mid-term election

There was lots of celebrating among Republicans on Tuesday evening as Albuquerque elected its first GOP mayor since 1985 and gave Republicans a sorely needed victory in a state in which they’ve moved close the brink of irrelevancy in recent years.

Republicans also took control of the Albuquerque City Council.

Even Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele noticed the victory by incoming Mayor Richard Berry, saying it “demonstrates the continuing popularity of conservative principles not only in New Mexico but nationwide.”

“As we approach elections this fall and in 2010, I am confident we will see many more Americans choosing Republicans to represent their best interests,” Steele said in a news release. “Candidates like Richard J. Berry, who are active proponents of lower taxes, smaller government and small businesses, are the future of the Republican Party, and I look forward to helping them all toward victory.”

But Republican activist and blogger Mario Burgos of Cedar Crest said Berry’s victory had more to do with anti-incumbent sentiment than it did a swing of the pendulum back to the GOP.

“I think the Republicans still have their work cut out for them in 2010, but it’s definitely a notice to all incumbents — which the majority in this state are Democrats — that there is an anti-incumbent sentiment out there, and it hasn’t gone away,” Burgos said in an interview. “… People in New Mexico have had enough.”

The GOP is trying next year to take back two congressional seats it lost in 2008 and win the governor’s race. The last is critical for the party because if Republicans don’t have the governor on their side, they’ll have almost no influence in redistricting in the next decade and risk being pushed further toward irrelevancy in state government.

Michael Ray Huerta of Las Cruces, a member of the Democratic Party’s state central committee, said in an interview that it’s up to Democrats to ensure the GOP doesn’t gain ground next year. He pointed to the fact that two Democrats were on the ticket competing with Berry on Tuesday and may have split the left’s vote.

The majority of voters — 56 percent — did pick either Martin Chávez or Richard Romero. The fact that those voters weren’t united behind one candidate, Huerta said, reveals “a divide between the progressives and the more moderate Dems.”

“That’s something that Democrats need to stop from happening,” Huerta said. “Because we can’t let this happen to Harry Teague. We can’t let this happen to Martin Heinrich. And we can’t let this happen to Diane Denish.”

“We need for Democrats to come together to decide where our party stands,” Huerta said.

The Democratic vote probably wasn’t split only between Chávez and Romero. Some analysts said it appeared that Berry also picked up the support of a significant number of Democratic voters — maybe as high as 15-20 percent.

Berry referred to that in a statement released by his campaign.

“This was a victory for a broad-based coalition of Albuquerque residents hungry for common-sense leadership,” he said. “I look forward to being the mayor for all of Albuquerque.”

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