Comments on: Berry’s win proves swing voters are back in play

By: wedum59

wedum59 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 14:16:32 +0000

LSG2010 wrote, “Berry won over 70% of the Republican vote, over 40% of the Independent vote, and about 16-18% of the Democratic vote.”

Thanks, that is what I was looking for, though I would like to see the numbers too.

By: LSG2010

LSG2010 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:20:18 +0000

Colonel is correct that GOP registration is 32%. The actual composition of the electorate will likely be greater than that — probably well above 35%, but that data is not yet available. As was indicated in the analysis, adding Republican voters to the electorate was part of the strategy, which is what happened with absentee voting.

Berry did well among Republicans, but he did not win all of them. Keep in mind that Chavez has unique strength (for a Democrat) among Republicans and actually carried the Republican vote in 2005. That’s why a Republican-only strategy would have failed for Berry.

Berry won over 70% of the Republican vote, over 40% of the Independent vote, and about 16-18% of the Democratic vote. Our tracking was consistent and looking at the results by city council district seem to confirm it. Berry carried the Republican districts in the heights, but also held his own in some very Democrat districts. For example, he came within two points of carrying city council district 1 (Sanchez) and did surprisingly well in the SE. That would not be possible with just Republican support and shows real strength among swing voters.

By: wedum59

wedum59 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:25:57 +0000

TC_2010, you misunderstood my question. What number, not % registered, of those that voted were Republican? Compare this to the number of votes Berry got. If Berry got a total vote greater than the number of Republicans that voted, then there is evidence that he got the swing vote.

Of course, some Republicans may have voted for Chavez, but first we need to know the numbers, as I originally commented.

Just to try and make myself clear, one more time–

Roughly 83,000 voters voted.
Berry received 44% of the 83,000, or ~36,520 votes.

____________ Republicans voted. Thiat is the number that is missing.

If that number is less than 100% of 36,520, then it is fair to assume that Berry got some swing and possibly some Dem votes. Chavez may have gotten some Republican votes, but that would just increase the number of swing/Democrat votes that Berry got.

If the number of Republicans who voted is MORE than 100% of 36,520, then it is clear that some Republicans voted for Chavez (or even Romero).

There’s more analysis that could be done, but first we need at least that one basic number.

By: The Colonel_2010

The Colonel_2010 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:59:09 +0000

Wedum, GOP registration in Abq is 32%. Berry recieved 44%, well outperforming the GOP registration. It’s a solid win. I dont see how anyone can discount it. Regardless of party affiliation.

By: wedum59

wedum59 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:41:43 +0000

It’s a fancy analysis, but some basic data is missing… Please report the count of how many of the 83,000 that voted were Republicans, Democrats or Others and compare that to Berry’s numbers. How many votes OVER the Republican total did Berry get? Or not?

Still 55% voted for a Democrat. Still seems more like a traditional Democratic practice of the party shooting iitself in its collective foot.

By: The Colonel_2010

The Colonel_2010 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 22:21:37 +0000

Actually, mjh, it is a surprisingly fair analysis.. they even gave Chavez credit for being well liked and not perceived as corrupt, which is where you would expect GOP spin to go. I remember when Chavez won with 47% and everyone called it a landslide. Berry beats Chavez by almost 10 points at 44% and somehow you discount the victory.

By: mjh

mjh — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 21:24:44 +0000

Wow. What spin! More people voted for a Democrat than for Berry. Hopefully, Berry is aware of that and remembers that throughout his term.