Chávez’s future uncertain as he lines up behind Udall

Excitement and a sense of inevitability characterized the crowd that showed up to hear Tom Udall announce his U.S. Senate run in Las Cruces last week.

The excitement came from Udall supporters and other Democrats who sensed a real opportunity to pick up a Senate seat held by a Republican for more than three decades. The sense of inevitability came from the few supporters of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez who attended the event to gauge reaction.

Doña Ana County was, after all, a place where Chávez expected to do quite well. But Udall’s announcement tour boldly hit Hispanic Democratic strongholds throughout the state, and many Democrats in Las Cruces began to see the writing on the wall when at least 50 people showed up to hear Udall.

“He’s going to win,” one longtime Democrat told me.

“Chávez doesn’t stand a chance,” another said.

Similar crowds greeted Udall at other stops. The energy behind Udall’s candidacy seemed to confirm polls that repeatedly showed him as much stronger than Chávez against both Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for Senate, U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. While Chávez has been fairly even with both Republicans in polls, Udall has been 15-18 points ahead of both.

Because of that, many I spoke with this evening weren’t surprised by the mayor’s announcement that he’s dropping out of the Senate race.

Not one to shy away from a fight

However, some were surprised by the announcement. Chávez had vowed for weeks to stay in the race despite the poll numbers and heavy pressure from Democrats in Washington to get out of the race and clear the way for Udall. Chávez told me before Udall entered the race that a primary against the congressman was “a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Former Albuquerque City Council Martin Heinrich, who is running for Congress, said he was surprised by Chávez’s decision.

“He’s a very tough guy who doesn’t shy away from a fight, so I am surprised that he did it,” he said.

In recent weeks, Chávez had been picking fights with Udall, calling him too liberal to win the race and hitting the congressman hard over his support of proposed budget cuts at the state’s two national laboratories. Udall was facing the same attacks from Pearce and Wilson, leading some to accuse the mayor of carrying water for the GOP.

There wasn’t a hint of the negativity in the statement Chávez released tonight.

“It is crucial to the future of New Mexico and this country that a Democrat become the next U.S. senator,” he said. “A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly could be, would likely dramatically weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy.”

He also pledged his support for Udall’s Senate bid. The Udall campaign could not be reached for comment.

What’s next for Chávez?

Chávez’s campaign made its first public mistake shortly after he entered the race in October when it released a list of members of his finance committee that included people who said they never agreed to serve on the committee. At that point, many Democrats began wondering whether Chávez’s organization had the strength and experience to compete against tough opponents and survive the constant pressure to drop out of the race.

And Chávez’s attempts to reach out to the liberal wing of his party fell on deaf ears. Progressives in Albuquerque like Republican councilors better than the mayor.

So what’s next for Chávez?

“I will work tirelessly to help Democrats get elected throughout our great State of New Mexico and our nation,” he said in the statement released this evening. “As mayor, I have many new, exciting programs that I want to bring to fruition. I want to spend my remaining time in the mayor’s office being the very best mayor possible for all of the citizens of my home town.”

Chávez’s current mayoral term ends in 2009. A campaign law placing term limits on the city’s elected officials has already been tossed out as it relates to council candidates, and Chávez would likely be successful in a challenge of the law if he wanted to reject term limits and seek re-election.

But would he want to do that? A day before news broke of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement in October, Albuquerque voters soundly defeated all Chávez-backed candidates and referenda in the city election. His power is significantly diminished.

Some will push him to run for the First Congressional District seat being vacated by Wilson, but I’ve confirmed that Chávez has no plan to do that. He has said all along he isn’t interested in serving two-year terms in the polarized House.

He could try to rejoin the 2010 gubernatorial race, but Chávez would have to start over. He formed an exploratory committee earlier this year and began raising money for the race, but he had to disband the state committee and return the money when he entered the Senate race. It would be difficult to restart the state campaign from scratch.

In addition, a September Albuquerque Journal poll found Chávez facing a 20-point deficit against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in a gubernatorial primary. Perhaps revealing what was to come in the Albuquerque election, Denish even bested Chávez in the city he leads 54-29 percent.

Chávez and his campaign aren’t talking about the mayor’s future plans. Questions went unanswered this evening.

New dynamic in Senate race

Chávez’s decision doesn’t quite clear the Democratic field for Udall, as alternative media publisher and editor Leland Lehrman is making a longshot bid for the party’s nomination. But it most likely makes the road ahead very easy for Udall through the June primary.

Meanwhile, Pearce and Wilson will duke it out in what will be the most closely watched primary contest in the state. Udall now has the happy position of raising money and spreading a positive message throughout the primary season while the two Republicans spend their money battling each other. If the GOP primary race turns nasty, it could be even more difficult for the successful but potentially damaged candidate to defeat Udall next November.

Senate Democrats already had their focus on Domenici’s seat, and they’re even more optimistic now about their prospects of taking it from Republicans. With Udall leading Pearce and Wilson in the polls, both Republicans will have to double their efforts if they’re to have a shot at winning in November.

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